Risk & Opportunity Archive
An Impeachment, an Extraordinary Speech, and a Turning Point
40 Years of Voodoo Economics
Navigating Chaos
June 2020: New Beginnings
2020: A Republic If You Can Keep It – Part 1
2017: Donald Trump – The Chaos President
Q3 ’16: 2016 Election Issue—The Politics of Destruction
Q2 ’16: Artificial Intelligence – Blessing or Curse?
Q1 ’16: WMD Proliferation: India-Pakistan Edition
Q4 ’15: Uncertainty
Q2 ’15: Green Shoots
Q1 ’15: Rationalizing Lunacy
Q4 ’14: The Tao of Washington
Q3 ’14: A Time for Downsizing
Q1 ’14: A Model for Leadership
Q4 ’13: History Repeats Itself
Q2 ’13: On the Bank of the Rubicon
Q1 ’13: The Mother of all Bubbles
Q3 ’12: Elections and De-Leveraging
Q2 ’12: All That Glitters
Q1 ’12: Contrary (Positive) Thoughts
Q4 ’11: Real Change is Coming
Q2 ’11: Government is Losing Legitimacy
Q1 ’11: The Deficit Dilemma
Q4 ’10: On the Brink
Q3 ’10: 2010 Election Issue: The Rise of the Mob
Q2 ’10: Sliding Gradually Down the Slippery Slope
Q4 ’09: Real Estate Reality
Q3 ’09: Mauldin on Economic Policy Options
Q2 ’09: The Financial Crisis is Not Over
Q1 ’09: Lifestyle Downsizing
Q4 ’08: Setting the Stage for Hyperinflation
Q3 ’08: Market Meltdown Into the Election
Q2 ’08: The Mother of All Messes
Q1 ’08: Back From the Brink
Q4 ’07: A Time for Caution
Q3 ’07: A Look On the Bright Side
Q2 ’07: The End of an Era
Q1 ’07: The Presidential Cycle and Mideast Tensions
Q4 ’06: Martin Luther King on Iraq
Q3 ’06: The Mid-Term Election and the Military Commissions Act
Q2 ’06: The Incredible Shrinking U.S.
Q1 ’06: Christ Among the Partisans
Q4 ’05: The Great Debate: Debt Bubble vs This Time is Different
Q3 ’05: Uncertainty and the Fruit of Hubris
Q2 ’05: America’s Truth Deficit
Q1 ’05: Wisdom From Paul Volcker
Q4 ’04: What, Me Worry?
Q2 ’04: Marking Time
Q1 ’04: The Home Stretch
Q3 ’03: The Twilight Zone
Q2 ’03: More of the Same
Q1 ’03: Gambling, Hubris and the Wages of War
Q4 ’02: The Big Picture
Q3 ’02: Consumption Exhaustion and The Case for Deflation
Q2 ’02: Strategies for a Bear Market
Q1 ’02: Why Alternative Investments?
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“The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking…We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.”
–Albert Einstein
An Impeachment, an Extraordinary Speech, and a Turning Point
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheDonald Trump’s second impeachment, on the surface, delivered the expected results. 43 Republican Senators voted against conviction despite absolutely damning, irrefutable evidence and a riveting, emotionally powerful presentation of the evidence by House impeachment managers. The final vote was 57-43 to convict, 10 shy of the 2/3rds majority required for conviction. But that is not […]
40 Years of Voodoo Economics
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddehe40 Years of Voodoo Economics The 40-year project to transfer the wealth of the nation to a new oligarchy is complete. The coup de grâce was delivered unexpectedly by Covid-19, which stripped the façade from our Potemkin economy, revealing tens of millions of Americans on the brink of penury, even as the 1% reaped a […]
Navigating Chaos
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheNavigating Chaos It’s summertime. This was when the virus was supposed to back off for a while. That’s certainly not happening. America’s response to this pandemic has been a tragedy, and a national embarrassment – the result of a catastrophic failure of leadership, and the deliberate politicization of recommended measures to limit the spread of […]
June 2020: New Beginnings
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe inauguration of Donald Trump brought on a whirlwind of scandal-a-day chaos that has made it impossible for me to assemble the long form Risk & Opportunity newsletters that I have published since 2002. As a result, I have only published twice since the 2016 election: “Donald Trump – The Chaos President” in July of […]
2020: A Republic If You Can Keep It – Part 1
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheSteve Bannon once held forth that the agenda of the Trump Administration is the “deconstruction of the administrative state.” In its place he envisioned a no-holds-barred nationalistic capitalism, grounded in a medieval Christianity – waging war against secularism and Islam. As time goes on, however, it has become clear that President Trump has something else […]
2017: Donald Trump – The Chaos President
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThis has been a difficult letter to write. The turbulence unleashed by the election of Donald Trump has continued unabated. The belligerent torrent of attack tweets and “alternative facts” emanating daily from the White House leaves one wondering how this could happen in America, and what will become of us. The news has become all […]
Q3 ’16: 2016 Election Issue—The Politics of Destruction
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheAs the 2016 presidential election mercifully draws to a close, the polls indicate that Hillary Clinton will handily defeat Donald Trump. There is great uncertainty, however, regarding control of Congress. The House is expected to remain in Republican hands, but the Senate is up for grabs. At the eleventh hour, an announcement by FBI Director […]
Q2 ’16: Artificial Intelligence – Blessing or Curse?
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddehe2016 has already been an outlier for unexpected events. Political turbulence and violent outbursts globally are on the rise. At home, the ambush murders of police officers in Dallas and Little Rock have shocked the nation. Politically, the ascendance of Donald Trump as the Republican nominee for President is enough to let us know that […]
Q1 ’16: WMD Proliferation: India-Pakistan Edition
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe border of India and Pakistan has been a toxic zone of conflict for decades, but the situation there has taken a turn for the worse. Pakistan has recently deployed tactical nukes on their border, under the control of local commanders. This hair-trigger situation is such that the slightest miscalculation could set off a nuclear […]
Q4 ’15: Uncertainty
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe world is in a state of confusion, reflected in markets across the board, which went nowhere for all of 2015 (see Bloomberg “The Year Nothing Worked”). The new year started off with a sharp, but historically normal, selloff in stocks (Dow -13%, S&P -11%). Market fundamentals suggest more downside but the selloff precipitated a […]