Risk & Opportunity Archive
New Platform
Why the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid
Are Women Citizens?
An Impeachment, an Extraordinary Speech, and a Turning Point
40 Years of Voodoo Economics
Navigating Chaos
June 2020: New Beginnings
2020: A Republic If You Can Keep It – Part 1
2017: Donald Trump – The Chaos President
Q3 ’16: 2016 Election Issue—The Politics of Destruction
Q2 ’16: Artificial Intelligence – Blessing or Curse?
Q1 ’16: WMD Proliferation: India-Pakistan Edition
Q4 ’15: Uncertainty
Q2 ’15: Green Shoots
Q1 ’15: Rationalizing Lunacy
Q4 ’14: The Tao of Washington
Q3 ’14: A Time for Downsizing
Q1 ’14: A Model for Leadership
Q4 ’13: History Repeats Itself
Q2 ’13: On the Bank of the Rubicon
Q1 ’13: The Mother of all Bubbles
Q3 ’12: Elections and De-Leveraging
Q2 ’12: All That Glitters
Q1 ’12: Contrary (Positive) Thoughts
Q4 ’11: Real Change is Coming
Q2 ’11: Government is Losing Legitimacy
Q1 ’11: The Deficit Dilemma
Q4 ’10: On the Brink
Q3 ’10: 2010 Election Issue: The Rise of the Mob
Q2 ’10: Sliding Gradually Down the Slippery Slope
Q4 ’09: Real Estate Reality
Q3 ’09: Mauldin on Economic Policy Options
Q2 ’09: The Financial Crisis is Not Over
Q1 ’09: Lifestyle Downsizing
Q4 ’08: Setting the Stage for Hyperinflation
Q3 ’08: Market Meltdown Into the Election
Q2 ’08: The Mother of All Messes
Q1 ’08: Back From the Brink
Q4 ’07: A Time for Caution
Q3 ’07: A Look On the Bright Side
Q2 ’07: The End of an Era
Q1 ’07: The Presidential Cycle and Mideast Tensions
Q4 ’06: Martin Luther King on Iraq
Q3 ’06: The Mid-Term Election and the Military Commissions Act
Q2 ’06: The Incredible Shrinking U.S.
Q1 ’06: Christ Among the Partisans
Q4 ’05: The Great Debate: Debt Bubble vs This Time is Different
Q3 ’05: Uncertainty and the Fruit of Hubris
Q2 ’05: America’s Truth Deficit
Q1 ’05: Wisdom From Paul Volcker
Q4 ’04: What, Me Worry?
Q2 ’04: Marking Time
Q1 ’04: The Home Stretch
Q3 ’03: The Twilight Zone
Q2 ’03: More of the Same
Q1 ’03: Gambling, Hubris and the Wages of War
Q4 ’02: The Big Picture
Q3 ’02: Consumption Exhaustion and The Case for Deflation
Q2 ’02: Strategies for a Bear Market
Q1 ’02: Why Alternative Investments?
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“The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking…We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.”
–Albert Einstein
Q1 ’13: The Mother of all Bubbles
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheGlobal central banks have been flooding the world with liquidity in an attempt to fend off debt deflation and re-inflate the global economy…a collective action that is creating the Mother of All Bubbles. On the macro level we are presently experiencing deflationary pressure due to continuing fallout from 2008, and government attempts to reign in […]
Q3 ’12: Elections and De-Leveraging
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe marathon 2012 presidential election campaign is almost finished. Polling has been volatile, but at press time with just a few days to go, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog gives Obama an 84% probability of electoral college victory. Intrade has Obama at 67%. This campaign gets the prize for banality. With almost $6 billion spent on […]
Q2 ’12: All That Glitters
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe topic of this quarter’s letter is gold. Is it a “barbarous relic” or the only true currency? Should everyone own some, or is it a useless asset? Few issues in the financial world provoke as much passionate and opposing commentary as the role and value of gold. Gold has rallied over 700% from its […]
Q1 ’12: Contrary (Positive) Thoughts
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheI have been writing about the inevitable consequences of our fiscal and political insanity since 2001, when those inevitable consequences were almost universally ignored. Since then, much of what I warned about has come to pass, the balance is looming on the horizon, and it has become de rigueur to be pessimistic about the future […]
Q4 ’11: Real Change is Coming
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThe reality of the economic catastrophe that has been created by 30 years of debt creation, laissez-faire globalization and upward redistribution of wealth, is gradually and steadily asserting itself. Our leaders have been doing everything they can think of to first deny, and then delay, delay, delay the inevitable, but big changes are beginning to […]
Q2 ’11: Government is Losing Legitimacy
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheWashington can be an ugly place even in the best of times, but the recent debt ceiling debacle was downright obscene. House Republicans, loud and proud in their ignorance and extremism, successfully took the nation hostage over the national debt ceiling. All their demands were met by our Compromiser-in-Chief. I am certainly not unsympathetic to […]
Q1 ’11: The Deficit Dilemma
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheOnly four months into 2011 and we’ve already had a decade’s worth of drama. The year began with the Arab uprising that continues to reshape the Middle East, followed by the earthquake and tsunami that devastated Japan, another war in Libya, and finally the killing of Osama bin Laden. Given that the global financial system […]
Q4 ’10: On the Brink
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheEgypt and Libya have been the most visible parts of a wave of popular revolt sweeping through the Arab world. Whether this is a miracle or a catastrophe only time will tell. Who will actually end up wielding power in these countries is the critical “unknown unknown” at this time. The one clear outcome of […]
Q3 ’10: 2010 Election Issue: The Rise of the Mob
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheAmerica is in trouble. Around the country, the nominations of Tea Party Republicans like Senate candidates Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Sharon Angle in Nevada, Joe Miller in Alaska, Rand Paul in Kentucky and Ken Buck in Colorado are the canaries in the coal mine. A group of Rand Paul supporters assaulted and stomped a woman […]
Q2 ’10: Sliding Gradually Down the Slippery Slope
/in Risk & Opportunity /by mcuddeheThere has been a lot of water under the dam since my last letter. Not much change of real substance; just gradual erosion across the board. The economy is still in a funk, markets have been gyrating in broad trading ranges, our political devolution proceeds unabated, and the global scene, especially the Middle East, is […]