The current theme among investors seems to be “what, me worry?” The stock market rallied nicely after the election, closing the year on its highs; the Dow up 3.1% and the S&P up 9%. The bond market has continued to defy gravity — ten year Treasuries are at 4.15% as of this writing and corporate […]

As we enter the home stretch of the presidential cycle the risk side of the ledger is laden with issues. In this letter I will highlight a few interlocking social, political and economic trends that will have a big impact in shaping our future and which bear monitoring as we close out this presidential cycle […]

The purpose of this quarter’s letter is to review the overall market situation and recap risk parameters. Overview While clearly a lot has happened in the last three months, things don’t feel much different. The stock market jumped the gun on the Iraq war, beginning its expected rally two weeks before the onset of hostilities. […]

The purpose of this letter is to review the big picture in terms of risk and take an initial look at some developing areas in terms of long term opportunity. Risk Overview In the short and intermediate term it appears that markets have settled down and that we may have some stability for a period […]

The first phase of the bear market is over and pundits are scrambling for indications that the recession is over and recovery is underway. But the pundits, for the most part, are ignoring the obvious – there are still major distortions in most sectors of our economy that have not been corrected. Also, global trade […]